据1月17日ICIS报道，预计到2019年，美国对东南亚和非洲等高增长地区的聚乙烯(PE)出口将继续增长，因为在关税的影响下，对中国的出口量将大幅下降。
贸易数据有限，仅持续到2018年10月，但一个清晰的模式已经出现。
埃森哲（Accenture）咨询公司汇编的美国国际贸易委员会(USITC)最新数据显示，从2018年7月到2018年10月，美国的高密度聚乙烯(HDPE)和线性低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)对中国的出口下降了55%。
“然而，越南、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和非洲的高增长地区所占份额超过了这一比例。尤其是越南，成品出口强劲，”埃森哲（Accenture）化工研究主管Paul Bjacek表示。
以美国HDPE和LLDPE为目标的第二轮中国关税于2018年8月实施，从而将7月份的数据与10月份的最新数据进行了对比。
从美国所有的PE出口（包括不在关税范围内的LDPE）来看，从7月到10月，对中国的月度出口下降了4.8万吨（-62%）。然而，根据埃森哲的分析，美国对越南、马来西亚、新加坡和印尼等东南亚国家的出口增加了7.8万吨(+238%)。
孔丽炜 摘译自ICIS
原文如下：
US polyethylene (PE) exports are expected to continue increasing to high growth regions such as southeast Asia and Africa in 2019 as volumes to China decline precipitously in the face of tariffs.
The trade data is limited, going only through October 2018 so far, but a clear pattern has emerged.
US exports of the two grades of PE under tariff - high density PE (HDPE) and linear low density PE (LLDPE) – to China plunged by 55% from July 2018 to October 2018, according to the latest data from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) compiled by consultancy Accenture.
“However, higher growth regions in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Africa have taken up more than that share.Vietnam in particular is seeing strong exports of finished goods,” said Paul Bjacek, chemicals research lead at Accenture.
The second round of China tariffs, which targeted US HDPE and LLDPE, were implemented in August 2018 – thus the comparison from July figures to the latest data in October.
Looking at all US PE exports (including LDPE which is not under tariff), monthly exports to China fell by 48,000 tonnes (-62%) from July to October. However, US exports to the southeast Asia countries of Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia rose by 78,000 tonnes (+238%), according to an analysis by Accenture.
