据离岸工程3月13日消息称，能源研究和商业智能公司Rystad能源公司表示，石油巨头正准备投资页岩气，等待可再生技术变得经济，从而为能源转型做好准备。

最近对2019年资本预算的审查显示，从2018年到2019年，石油巨头是唯一增加页岩气支出的群体。

雪佛龙和埃克森美孚等大公司最近宣布，计划大幅提高多产页岩盆地的产量，比如横跨德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地。

Rystad能源公司副总裁Matthew Fitzsimmons表示：“石油巨头正加大对页岩气的投资，努力向可再生能源转型。”

他补充说：“页岩气具有明显的重复特性，具有快速的回报和高回报特性。然而，石油巨头们也明白石油需求峰值可能不会太遥远。一旦达到这一点，拥有现金储备的石油巨头将处于有利地位，成为新可再生能源范式的先行者。”

Rystad能源公司预测石油需求将会在2037年达到峰值，但在我们的低预测中，技术效率的提高可能会将这一峰值加速至2027年。 

Fitzsimmons 表示：“如果所有已发现的页岩、陆上和海上油田的石油价格都低于每桶60美元，并按照目前的时间表得到批准，到2031年，全球石油产量将满足并超过Rystad能源公司的低需求。主要运营商似乎正在采取措施，为这种风险做好准备。” 

尽管一些大型石油公司近年来投资于可再生能源，但可再生能源项目在很大程度上仍难以与化石燃料竞争对手在成本上竞争。

Equinor去年披露其海上风电场的生产成本接近每兆瓦时200欧元。该公司的目标是到2030年将生产成本降低到每兆瓦时50欧元。相比之下，目前的化石燃料发电成本在每兆瓦时40至120欧元之间。

Fitzsimmons表示：“如果Equinor和其他可再生能源项目运营商在未来十年内成功降低可再生能源生产成本，我们可能会开始看到更多的投资从化石燃料转向可再生能源，一页岩气投资增加所带来的巨额现金流，将使石油巨头在资金上具有灵活性，一旦绿色技术成熟，它们就可以开始加大对可再生能源的投资。”

Rystad能源公司对资本预算的审查也揭示了另外两种模式，这些模式使得石油专业人士在能源转型中更加敏捷。

第一种，页岩和液化天然气的支出在各大天然气巨头中呈比例增长。在2001年至2005年期间，它占其总支出的10％。根据Rystad能源公司的预测，到2023年它将增长到30％。

Fitzsimmons表示：“这意味着未来五年内大型企业在页岩气和液化天然气项目上的支出将比20年前增加2,000亿美元。"

第二种，石油和天然气公司在投资新资产时要谨慎得多，以降低风险和提高回报。

勘探和生产公司以前更喜欢进行大规模的长期投资，现在越来越倾向于一次只开发一个阶段的资产，这样他们就可以分散投资决策和随后的承诺。

Fitzsimmons评论道：“我们已经看到了这种趋势，主要石油公司已将重点从长期海上项目转向分阶段的页岩气投资。这一战略将使他们能够管理能源转型的固有不确定性，将现金流维持在几乎创纪录的高位，因此，一旦新兴的绿色技术使这种转变在经济上具有吸引力，就赋予它们进入可再生能源领域的财务灵活性。”

曹海斌     摘译自     离岸工程

原文如下：

Large Oil Firms Invest in Shale

Oil majors are readying themselves for the energy transition by investing in shale and waiting for renewable technology to be economical, said Rystad Energy, energy research and business intelligence company.

A recent review of 2019 capital budgets reveals that oil majors are the only group to increase shale expenditure from 2018 to 2019.

Big companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil recently announced plans to significantly ramp up production in prolific shale basins, such as the Permian Basin spanning Texas and New Mexico.

“Oil majors are spending more dollars on shale in an effort to evolve into renewables,” said Rystad Energy Vice President Matthew Fitzsimmons.

He added: “Shale offers the obvious benefits of being repetitive in nature, having fast payback and high return profiles. However, majors also understand that peak oil demand might not be far off.once this point is reached, majors with cash reserves will be in an advantageous position to become first movers in the new renewable energy paradigm.”

Rystad Energy forecasts that oil demand will peak by 2037, but increased technology efficiencies could accelerate this peak to 2027 in our low case forecast. 

“If all discovered shale, onshore and offshore fields with breakeven oil prices below $60 per barrel are sanctioned per their current timelines, global production will meet and exceed Rystad Energy’s low case oil demand through 2031. Through their investment patterns, major operators appear to be taking steps to ready themselves for this risk,” Fitzsimmons remarked.

While some big oil companies have invested in renewable energy in recent years, renewable energy projects are for the most part still struggling to be cost competitive with their fossil fuel rivals.

Equinor disclosed last year that production costs at its offshore wind farms are nearly €200 per megawatt hour. The company’s ambition is to reduce production costs to €50 per megawatt hour by 2030. By comparison, current fossil fuel power production costs range between €40 and €120 per megawatt hour.

“If Equinor and other renewable energy project operators are successful in driving down renewable production costs over the next decade, we may start to see a greater investment shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy,” Fitzsimmons said. “The high cash flows that majors have generated from increased shale investments will give them the financial flexibility to begin spending more in renewables once green technologies have matured.”

The Rystad Energy review of capital budgets also reveals two other patterns that make majors more agile in the energy transition.

First, spending on shale and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is increasing proportionally for the majors. In the period 2001 to 2005, it constituted 10% of their total expenditures. By 2023 it will have grown to 30%, according to Rystad Energy’s forecasts.

“This means that majors will spend $200 billion more over the next five years on shale and LNG projects than they did just two decades ago,” Fitzsimmons said.

Second, oil and gas companies are taking a much more careful approach when investing in new assets to mitigate risk and boost paybacks.

Exploration and production companies (E&Ps) – which previously preferred to make large, long-term investments – now increasingly favor developing assets one phase at a time, allowing them to spread out investment decisions and their subsequent commitments.

“We already see this trend on the ground, as majors have shifted their focus from long-term offshore projects to phased shale investments,” Fitzsimmons remarked. “This strategy will allow them to manage the inherent uncertainty of the energy transition, maintain cash flow at almost record highs, and thus grant them the financial flexibility to move into renewables as soon as emerging green technology makes such a shift economically attractive.”